The Settlement Floor: What a Case Is Rationally Worth
A transparent model of the settle-or-fight decision
More reports →- For an illustrative $1,000,000 case that costs $150,000 to try, a risk-neutral plaintiff's "settlement floor" — the least they should rationally accept — is simply the expected value of trial: win probability times recovery, minus the cost to get there.
- Below a 15% win probability, that floor goes negative: the case has negative expected value, and a rational plaintiff would pay to avoid trial rather than expect to gain from it.
- The floor moves $100,000 for every 10 percentage points of win probability — which is exactly why fighting over the odds, not the headline damages number, is where cases are won and lost.
Settlement floor for a $1,000,000 case, by win probability
This is a MODEL, not a prediction and not scraped data. It applies textbook expected-value logic — settlement floor = P(win) x recovery - cost to try — across a range of win probabilities, holding recovery at $1,000,000 and the cost to try at $150,000. Real cases are richer: outcomes are a distribution rather than win-or-lose, parties are risk-averse, costs compound by phase, and both sides hold private information. Those are precisely the variables Juricratic's engine models per matter. The figures here are computed directly from the formula shown; nothing is empirical.
This page is an educational explainer, not legal advice, and creates no attorney–client relationship. Juricratic is a simulation engine: every probability-like figure is a dial you set, not a calibrated prediction. Verify every rule, deadline, and figure against the authorities and orders that govern your matter.
We built the engine behind these numbers.
Juricratic turns a lawsuit into a solvable game — the same data-driven rigor, applied to a single matter you can rehearse.
Request access →